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Calgary Flames
(3-4-1)

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Scotiabank Saddledome

Game time: 8:00 pm (CST)

TV Coverage: FSMW (HD)

Radio Coverage: Fresh 102.5 FM

Head to Head:

Tonight is the second match up between the Blues and the Flames this season.  The first game resulted in a Blues 5-2 win, and was Jaroslav Halak’s only win so far this season.  Both teams have had a bit of a shaky start to the season so far.

From the Blues Perspective:

The Blues have a major goaltending debate on their hands.  Jaroslav Halak started the season out extremely weak.  Backup goaltender Brian Elliott has shown strength and reliability in his starts, and has won all 4 of the games he has started.  Halak has only 1 win in his 5 starts.  While many fans are expecting the Blues to continue to rely on the hot hand, others  think that Halak needs to get back in the net to work his kinks out.  While tonight may have seemed to be the opportunity for Halak to try and jump-start his season, since he has proven he can beat the Flames in his only win this season, the Blues are planning starting Brian Elliot yet again (Jeremy Rutherford).

Meanwhile, the Blues forwards have been stepping up to get the Blues on the board more than when the season started.  In the last game, Alex Steen scored 2 of the 3 Blues goals, giving him 5 goals and 8 points total this season.

The Blues will need to outwork and out-shoot the Flames tonight if they hope to have a repeat performance of the October 10th game.

From the Flames Perspective:

The Flames have had as shaky of a start to their season as the Blues have.  In their 8 games, they only have 3 wins.  The Flames have been on a home stand for their last 4 games, but they have only managed to win 2 of those games.

The Flames carry an unusual line arrangement of 11 forwards and 7 defensemen.  This arrangement isn’t something completely new in the NHL, but most teams carry 12 forwards unless they are suffering from injury issues.  The unique lineup gave the Flames a win against the Avalanche, and there is a good possibility that the Blues could face it tonight.

The Flames have seen most of their strength in their forwards thus far.  Rene Bourque has a team-high 5 goals, but those are his only points so far this season.  Alex Tanguay is the team’s point leader with 8 points (1 G, 7 A).

The Flames will need to step their game up if they hope to add another home win tonight.

Something that shocked a few Blues fans is that John Davidson, Blues president let it known today that the Blues were aggressively active at trying to acquire Kovalchuk but stating that the Thrashers were asking for one or two pieces that he didn’t feel comfortable in moving for a rental player. The fact that the Blues were not allowed to negotiate at all with Ilya’s agent, it made it harder to send key pieces to Atlanta knowing that Kovalchuk could be gone on July 1st.

But now, looking at up coming free agents, who could be left for the Blues to look at either at the trade deadline, or the off-season? I’ll list my top five ‘wants’ for the Blues this offseason.

Ilya Kovalchuk tops my list of "wants" this year for the Blues.

1. Ilya Kovalchuk – This is obvious on if the Devils and Kovalchuk cannot work out a deal, which is unlikely looking at New Jerseys cap room. They would have to move a lot of salary, meaning Brian Rolston and Dainius Zubrus would have to go. With Rolston having a NTC, its unlikely that event occurs. With what Kovalchuk could be asking, there is a fine line of  signing him to an acceptable deal, or overpaying. If Ilya continues to ask for league maximum ($11.3 million),  I would have to say pass. I understand he is a superstar and that he is going to command big money, but he isn’t the best player in this league and he shouldn’t be paid more than three million dollars more than the best players either. For a contract for Ilya, inking him to a deal that is upwards of eight or more years would be likely as he’ll want some comfort in not having to worry about a shorter contract. I would go no higher than $9.5 million in a year for Kovalchuk. Locking up that much money in one player could be a strain on other players, but when you have a franchise talent such as Ilya, its worth every penny.

2. Rene Bourque – Rene is an interesting option to go after because he brings one thing the Blues need desperately, goal scoring.  He’s not going to wow you like Kovalchuk and put up 40 goals a year, but you can expect a good 20 out of him for a rather cheap price. Bourque could land a deal with some cash, but I wouldn’t expect to see him sign for anymore than $3.5 million a year and even that would be more than doubling his current contract. If the Blues could hammer out a deal at the deadline to get Bourque in a Blues jersey, I don’t think signing  him to a contract extension would be to hard, and it would be a smart idea as well. You could save money on a cheap deal with Rene and still have money available to push for a top end goaltender or more scoring as well.

3. Pekka Rinne – This is going to be a fun situation to follow in Nashville to begin with, and depending on who gets a new deal, Pekka Rinne, Nashville’s star goaltender could become available. Rinne is a soon to be unrestricted free agent and could command a good chunk of change and he’d be worth it. Rinne is a big boy, 6’5″, 207lbs and takes up a lot of the net. He’s got super fast reflexes and has the ability to make the sprawling save if need be. He’s been in the Predators organization since the 2005-2006 season and has turned out to be a nice diamond in the rough, after being selected in the 8th round of the 2004 NHL entry draft.

Rinne would be a huge addition to the Blues goaltending pool.

He’s got a very strong record in his NHL career with Nashville, carrying a 50-26-10 record. Getting a point in 60 of 87 games is an incredible number for a second year goalie. His .912 save-percentage and a 2.52 goals-against-average will make Rinne a highly sought after goaltender this coming off-season and with the Blues inability to truly bring up a goalie in their system, Rinne ranks high on my list of wants this year, and deservedly so, he’s a great young goalie.

4. Jaroslav Halak/Carey Price – Needless to say, one of these goalies are likely on the move. The two young netminders are both battling for a starting position and there are reason’s that either could be moved. They both want to start. This has to be the biggest, and one of the main reason’s they make my list. Carey Price is Montreal’s pride and joy. They expected great things out of him, especially after Bob Gainey dealt veteran goalie Christobal Huet at the trade deadline a few season’s ago and giving Price the full time job and Halak  the back up job. But now it proves to be that Halak has been the better goalie of the two this year. So which one gets moved?

My guess would be Halak is the goalie moved because of how high the Habs have been on Price ever since drafting him fifth overall in 2005. He’s been the “franchise’s goalie” for a long time now and though they got a steal in Halak (9th round, 271st overall in 2003) its’ likely that they go the Price route which makes Halak expendable. But that is just my opinion. To me, it doesn’t matter, Jaroslav Halak OR Carey Price would be a great addition to the Blues goaltending pool.

Alex Frolov ranks 5th on my list this year.

5. Alexander Frolov – This speedy Russian has loads of skill. He’s played 510 National Hockey League games, and has recorded 362 points (161 goals, 201 assists) Fact is, Frolov has finishing ability and likes shooting the puck. He’s ranked as the third line left wing on the Kings depth chart, and is rumored to want to test free agency.

This could give the Blues a good chance at snagging up this still fairly young Russian. Maybe it could convince some of our other young Russian prospects (Andronov and Lemtyugov) that if you play up to par, Russian or not, you can play for the St. Louis Blues.

So looking at my list, if you can score or can play goalie well, you could be a good addition to this Blues franchise.

Oh, and before you comment asking about why Patrick Marleau isn’t on my top five wish list, that is because I fully suspect him to have a new deal signed with the Sharks before he even hits free agency.

Brad Boyes and Paul Kariya combine for the following:
$10 million in cap hits
102 Games Played this season
59 total points
.578 Points/Game
20 Goals

Yes, the numbers really are that bleak. Two players totaling roughly 1/5 of the teams cap hits barely scrapes up a point every other game played.

I think an argument can be made that this team doesn’t have a true star player. Tkachuk and Kariya are past their prime. McDonald was never the go to guy. Backes, Oshie, Berglund, Perron, and even Steen are still growing as players. Brad Boyes has scored 76 goals in his last two seasons in St. Louis. Far more than anyone else. Kariya comes in with the second strongest offensive pedigree on the team. Yet both players are on pace to have a combined total of 88 Points. That is an investment of roughly $136,000 per point registered by those two.

By comparison lets look at the trio of Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton, and Patrick Marleau. Thier combined cap hit is $21 million. That is roughly 37/38% of San Jose’s cap hits. Combined they have 182 points in 162 games. That is a 1.12 points game pace. Together they project to be at 277 points in 246 games. Their combined cost per point at their current projection is a little over $75,000.

I know that I am picking basically the two opposite ends of the spectrum to show my point…but stick with me.

I did this to show how far off the Blues are from competing and reaching the next level. The Blues top end salaries fail to produce. The post lockout NHL is about getting the most for your money possible when it comes to your big investments. We need not look farther than Jay McKee to see where a lot of money spent for little offensive return hinders your team. The Blues big investments have failed or greatly regressed this season. I do not think its fair to expect a group of largely secondary players to compete at the highest level and win every night when there isn’t a go to player to put you over the top.

Am I saying the Blues season is over? No, I am not. Look what the Blues did without maximizing their points per money spent on their biggest contracts last season. What I am saying is that it is time for the Blues to look at divesting their bigger investments to free up money for a better investment.

The ability to divest in Kariya is already there. He is an unrestricted free agent come July 1st and the Blues can wash their hands clean then, or possibly at the trade deadline. I’ve heard some fans say they would like him back, at about half the price. At $3 million and his current pace he is giving you points for every $71,000 spent. That’s not too bad, but I just don’t feel that is the right way to go. It’s time to move on.

Divesting Brad Boyes is much more difficult. Not only because of his contact ($4 million for two more seasons), but because of his previous production. Do you gamble and hope that he bounces back and risk being burnt if he doesn’t? I think that depends upon the return you have via trade. If Boyes is moved along with another “big contract” lacking offensive production (Brewer and Jackman), can you add in a second player via free agency.

For example, let’s propose a deal between Calgary and St. Louis. The Flames take Brewer and Boyes while the Blues acquire Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf is a $6.50 million cap hit for several years down the road. You’ve divested $ 10.25 million to acquire $6.25 million in an investment. Leaving roughly $4 million to invest further. Let’s also proposed that Calgary winger Rene Bourque makes it to free agency July 1st. The Blues sign him to an offer that has a $4mil cap hit.

Boyes + Brewer would be $10.25 million spent for 75 combined points. A total of $136,000+ spent per point.

Phaneuf + Bourque would be $10.25 million spent for 98 combined points (based off points/game x 82 games). A total of $104,000+ spent per point.

That is roughly a savings of $32,000 per point. Not a a dramatic amount, but what it does bring are certain intangibles.

Phaneuf is 24 and Bourque is 28. Brewer is 33 and Boyes is 27. Overall you have more money invested in younger players who are more likely to trend towards positive growth compared to trending down older players. Bourque and Phaneuf are known for being very physical players. While Brewer has improved in that facet, neither Blues player has a distinct physical edge. In today’s NHL size  and strength + skill are the way to go. Bourque and Phaneuf are upgrades there.

There are countless other scenarios that I know Al MacInnis, John Davidson, Larry Pleau, Doug Armstrong, and the Blues Capologists are tinkering with. The Blues could play for Marleau with fried up money. Maybe acquire a big fish like Kovalchuk with freed up space. Maybe acquire a power play QB in Kaberle. The bottom line is that in a pivotal season the Blues have in regressed while other teams have progressed. The Blues have a plan, but has that changed? Are the Blues willing to cut dead weight that is holding the team back?

The scenarios are out there to allow the Blues to revamp this team with more prodcutive players with positive production trend ability. Can the Blues make them happen? Is the front office willing to take the risk at the trade deadline poker game and  free agency craps table?  Blues fans will have a good idea where the team will head when we enter the Olympic break. From there the team can go any number of directions.

He looks like BJ Crombeen's long lost twin, doesn't he? Image via nhl.com

The one fight that occurred between the Blues and Ducks on Saturday was similar to the Blues’ third period effort – pathetic.  It was between Troy Bodie and Brad Winchester, and honestly it shouldn’t have been classified as a fight..  Bodie got a few shots in, Winchester got a few shots in, Bodie grabbed Winchester’s arms, Winchester got loose, Winchester got one more shot in, both fell down.  There’s not even video evidence of this fight on Fried Chicken’s Hockey Fights, and quite frankly it’s not even worthy of video.  It was a draw (I cast the only vote).  Winchester’s season record is now 3-1-2, and honestly it should still be 3-1-1.  The Blues still sit in 5th place with 43 fights on the year; their season fight record is now 20-12-11.

I’ve had this game circled on my calendar for weeks.  Why, you ask?  Simple: the Calgary Flames are the top fighting team in the National Hockey League.  Coming into tonight, they’ve thrown the gloves down 54 times in the ’09-’10 season.  It would not be a stretch to guarantee that there will be pugilistic action in this contest.  In all, 14 Flames have fought on the season.  And not only do they throw down often, they throw down WELL; their fight record this season is 26-10-18.  They’re 1-1-0 against the Blues this year, with both fights happening in the two games already played in St. Louis: Robyn Regehr over David Backes on November 5th and Cam Janssen over Brandon Prust on December 15th.  It should be mentioned that Prust looks a bit like BJ Crombeen’s long lost twin brother.  Hey, they ARE both named Brandon after all.

The Flames sport two leading fighters – wingers Prust (5’11″, 195lbs, 7-3-7) and Brian McGrattan (6’4″ 235lbs, 9-2-2).  These two have contested in 30 of the teams 54 fights, so if you’re looking for punches, these would be the guys most likely to throw them.  Other Flames with multiple fights on the season are winger Eric Nystrom (6’1″, 193lbs, 1-0-4), winger and franchise player Jarome Iginla (6’1″, 207lbs, 2-0-2), defenseman Regehr (6’3″, 225lbs, 2-1-0), defenseman Mark Giordano (6’0″, 203lbs, 1-1-0), defenseman and team whipping boy Dion Phaneuf (6’3″, 214lbs, 1-0-1) and winger Rene Bourque (6’2″, 213lbs, 1-0-1).  Even old friend, center Craig Conroy (6’2″, 193lbs, 0-1-0) has gotten in on the act – he registered the first Flames fight on the season, actually.

If Backes comes back for this game, he’s got one member of Team Canada to shoot for – Iginla.  I, for one, would LOVE for this to happen.  Alas, it probably won’t.  Excepting that, the dream matchup of the evening would be a rematch between Prust and Janssen.  They’re about even size-wise and they both are very skilled fighters.  It would be MUCH better than the fight between Bodie and Winchester from Saturday, that is for certain.

This is an important Western Canada swing if the Blues think they’re going to stay alive in the Western Conference playoff hunt.  Let’s take ‘em.

LET’S GO BLUES!!!!!

Information obtained via the incomparable Fried Chicken’s Hockey Fights