In a blog earlier this month I went over two possible trade scenarios involved Blues Forward Paul Kariya. at the time the two likely targets were the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Vancouver Canucks. Not much has changed since February 11th, but after some comments back on the scenarios, I feel some deeper digging is in order.
Capgeek.com is a great website for fans wanting to play around with Free Agent scenarios and team salaries/Cap Space. One new feature they have is the Trade Machine. This is basically a salary calculator that figures out how a trade breaks down in terms of salary and cap hits. A nifty tool for a computer chair GM or blogger. I spent a little time playing around with the scenarios and here is how they worked out.
Pittsburgh
As of March 3rd Kariya will have $1,243,523 left as his Cap Hit. As of that same date the Penguins have $735,626 in Cap Space. The difference is roughly $550,000.
Scenario One was a deal to send a conditional pick (similar to the Guerin deal) + a Roster player (Eaton, Dupuis, Fedotenko, etc). All three players listed as examples are below the needed $550,000 Cap Hit that the Pens have to clear. For the Pens to make such a deal, multiple players would have to go to St. Louis to add Kariya. If multiple Pens players are sent back, can the Pens replace said player? They could with a warm body, but it would be very hard to replace the experience lost. Dupuis and Eaton + the Pick(s) would clear the needed cap space and leave the Pens roughly $130,000 in Cap Space.
Scenario Two was a deal moving a mid level prospect (not named Caputi or Tangradi) + a Roster player. This is basically the same scenario, but instead of a pick, the Blues get a player who can go to Peoria and be an upgrade there now and in the NHL for depth later.
Scenario one is the most plausible because the Pens can replace Eaton with Skoula as a top 6 and then use Ben Lovejoy (or someone of the same ilk) as the #7 Defensemen. Dupuis can be replaced by Max Talbot who was not playing prior to the break. Someone like Dustin Jeffrey, Nick Johnson, or Chris Conner can replace Talbot as the depth player on the NHL roster. Scenario two is far less possible upon second review because the Pens are dealing too much personnel and cutting in to their depth.
Vancouver
Vancouver is even more precarious because they will have only $536,788 in Cap Space come the March 3rd deadline. meaning they would need to find a way to clear out roughly $700,000 to make Kariya fit.
Scenario One was A Roster player + a Pick + Corey Schneider. In this scenario only the roster player is pulling Cap Hits from the Canucks figures. Corey Schneider is not on the NHL roster so his contract is not counting towards their cap figure. The only player who could clear enough space is Pavol Demiitra. His Cap Hit is $829,016 come March 3rd. This scenario may work as Demitra has had very little to do with the success Vnacouver has had this season. He played in just 11 games before the Olympic break and pitched in just 1 Goal with 4 Points. He doesn’t really fit back in to the Canucks Top 6 of Sedin x2, Burrows, Raymond, Kesler, and Samuelsson. Is he the type of guy to play a 3rd line role and help a team win a Cup? I think some Vancouver fans would say no (I bet some Blues fans will too). Demitra would save the Blues roughly half a million dollars in salary from March 3rd to the end of the season.
Scenario Two was a Roster player + AHL Prospect + Schneider. Just like in the Pens scenario’s, this one is virtually the same impact on the destination team. The Canucks won’t be moving Schroeder or Hodgson, so there wouldn’t be too much depth lost in moving a mid level prospect.
Scenario one is the most likely here as well. Demitra is a was out considering both he and Kariya are UFAs come July 1st. The Pick is a throw in. Schneider is what the Blues would really be after. The Blues save money and “get their goalie” while the Canucks upgrade Demitra to Kariya and get some return for Schneider.
Other Teams?
Could another team still be involved? Of course. The Pens and Canucks are obvious starting points due to Paul’s life and career. Who else could be looking to add a rental for a reduced cost?
NY Islanders – In the middle of the muck in the East. Lots of Cap Space and could use some added veteran experience. Will Snow want to give up picks or prospects for a rental? Maybe. Will Kariya waive his NMC to go to NYI? Doubtful, unless he thinks he can raise his UFA value there.
Ottawa Senators – They will have roughly $1,349,508 in Cap Space come the deadline and could use another producing forward with some experience. If they can’t get in on Ponikarvosky, Whitney, etc. Kariya could be in play.
LA Kings – They are poised for a playoff run and are already rumored to be kicking tires (and have made offers) for Ray Whitney of Carolina. Could Kariya be their consolation prize? They have the Caps Space and the prospects/picks to do the deal and not lose future depth.
Colorado Avalanche – The team has “overachieved” but is playing well. They could benefit from Kariya’s experience and speed. They have the space to cut a deal and take on that Cap Hit. He could be a nice stabilizer for their young core and provide some consistency in effort for the Avs. The Avs have a shot at a decent run and Paul is familiar with the Avs. Will they gamble on him a second time?
Buffalo Sabres – The team can play and has great goaltending, but goal scoring and offensive production are in question. Would Buffalo be willing to move MacArthur, Stafford, or the like to bring in the speedy Kariya? They space is there if the Sabres move a roster play back to St. Louis.
Final Destination #2
Vancouver seems to be difficult even though both teams have what the other team wants. Money could be the issue that trumps any move. That said, If Vancouver is willing to move Demitra, the deal could work in terms of salary and Cap Hits.
Pittsburgh can do it, but at what cost to their NHL depth?
I still think Vancouver is the most likely trading partner. I would not discount LA or Ottawa (or Pittsburgh) if Whitney, Ponikarvosky, or Torres is not to be had.