Recapping the Blues Impressive November & Looking Towards December

Rewind back to October 7th. The day before the season and home opener against Nashville. Hopes were high that the Blues would start shaking off their curses and hex the opposition in to submission. The roster was deep on paper and should weather the storm of injuries once tested on the ice. One time promising prospects looked ready to break out and become proven team leaders and burgeoning stars.

Fast forward back to today.

As of December 1st hopes have been realized. The Blues own the West’s 5th highest ranking with a 14-8-2 record and 30 points. Only one point behind Central Division rivals Detroit and Chicago. Winners of four straight and the third best home record in the Conference. Perhaps the strongest team in the league at even strength. Captain David Backes, fan favorite TJ Oshie, Swedish Army Knife Alex Steen, wise beyond his years Alex Pietrangelo and the solid goaltending of Brian Elliott have been the toast of the league.

Life is good in St. Louis for devout blue bleeders. It hasn’t been that way from the outset of the 2011-12 campaign though.

Many expected Davis Payne to be the weaver of such success, but he was not. Unable to encourage his players to battle consistently and produce in his system he quickly fell out of favor. The frustrating situation lead to a 6-7-0 record after 13 games and his dismissal on November 6th. Ken Hitchcock was tapped as successor. All he has done is reinvigorate the club which sent them on a 8-1-2 tear in his first 11 games and resulted in a 9-2-2 November.

An impressive run for sure, but how did November shake out beyond the team record?

By the Numbers

3rd in Central Division
5th in Western Conference
8th in NHL
Overall Record: 14-8-2

November: 9-2-2
Home: 6-1-1
Away: 3-1-1

My prediction was 7-5-1 back on November 2nd. Instead of 25 of 46 points the Blues have 30 of 46.

Goals For: 31
Goals For/Game: 2.38
Goals Against: 17
Goals Against/Game: 0.764
Power Play: 4 for 44, 9.1%
Penalty Kill: 42 for 48, 87.5%

Leading Scorer: David Backes and TJ Oshie, both with 6 goals and 11 points.
Top Goaltender: Brian Elliott, 6-0-0, 0.99 GAA, .961 save percentage, 2 shutouts

Fun Fact: Out of 23 skaters to dress in November, only two ended up below Even in Plus/Minus rating. Both Brett Sterling and Evgeny Grachev were a Minus-1.

Grades & Evaluations

Forwards
Grade: B+

Evaluation: Positive results have come at the pace they have thanks to not only Hitchcock’s system but the forwards buying in to it. Without their commitment to back checking, puck pursuit and forechecking the wins come far less frequently.

Their grade could be higher if not for the sluggish rate in which the four lines have finished scoring opportunities. Overall the Blues are only .42 off of last year’s 10th best rate of 2.88 GF/G, but the power play has transitioned from 10th in 10-11 to 30th and this month’s 4 for 44 stretch did not improve their ranking. Part of the blame certainly does reside with the forwards who are too often on the periphery.

The top line of Backes, Oshie and Alex Steen has been on fire. Mixing the correct chemistry for 14 goals, 30 points and a gaudy Plus-24. This line has been tasked with shutting down some of th top players in the league and few have produced going head to head against this trio.

Secondary scoring from Patrik Berglund, Chris Stewart, Matt D’Agostini, Jason Arnott and Vladimir Sobotka has been minimal. The five had just 7 goals in a combined 60 games. Including Jamie Langenbrunner brings the total to 9 goals in 73 games. Credit goes to Arnott, Langenbrunner and left wingers Chris Porter and Sobokta for providing an effective third line in the other facts of the game beyond scoring. The fourth line, featuring Scott Nichol, Ryan Reaves, Evgeny Grachev and Brett Sterling has been arguably the best at the role in the league.

Defensemen
Grade: A

Evaluation: Where would this team be without the elevated play of those patrolling the blueline? In a world of hurt. Instead just the defensemen are feeling big pain as they’ve blocked 216 shots on goal. They’re also transitioning the puck to the forwards and are skillfully leading the effort behind the possession game.

The defensemen could earn a high grade as well if Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk were able to quarterback a successful power play.

In the abscence of Kent Huskins, Pietrangelo has primarily been partnered with Carlo Colaiaocov and Ian Cole. Pietrangelo hasn’t skipped a beat and continues to log over 24 minutes a game. With Colaiacovo out, Cole has put his elevated maturity on display of late. Aiding the in the shutdown of Sidney Crosby on Thanksgiving Eve. Barret Jackman and Shattenkirk were the second pairing for most of the month and put up great numbers backing their play. Combining for 10 points, a Plus-9 rating and both averaging over 20 minutes a game. Kris Russell came over in a mid month trade for Nikita Nikitin and has scored 3 goals in 9 games while partnered with Roman Polak. The two have been an affective pair thanks to their above average mobility.

Goaltending
Grade: A+

Evaluation: Brian Elliott has been the talk of the NHL, but Jaroslav Halak has quietly had one of the best months of his pro career. Posting a 3-2-2 record with a 1.55 GAA, .938 save percentage and 1 shutout. There isn’t any more to be said other than these two have been rock solid and are developing in to the best goaltending tandem in the West.

Coaching
Grade: B+

Evaluation: Considering Payne is gone, there is no point in rehashing his short comings. Looking at Hitchcock he deserves at least a B for coming in and capturing the energy rush that comes with a firing/hiring and sustaining it. He was unable to get the power play clicking aside from the outburst in his first two games, which prevents him from earning an A. The improvements on the penalty kill put him at a B+.

Management
Grade: B

Evaluation: Doug Armstrong pulled off the Russell trade which has paid immediate dividends, but the late month road trip where the Blues had to rush Peoria Rivermen defenseman Cade Fairchild to DC before Tuesday’s game prevents him from earning an A. Teams in this era just should not be traveling without 13 forward and 7 defenseman. Especially when the AHL club is not in action.

Trends To Reverse

- Weakest power play in the league. Only 7 conversions with the man advantage out of 80 attempts, 8.8%.

- Fewest goals scored of any team currently in a playoff position. Just 59 goals scored in 24 games played.

- Regression on the draw. At one time the Blues were in the top 5 in faceoff percentage. They are currently ranked 21st with a 48.6% win rate.

- Winless in the Shootout. One of three teams winless with two or more shootouts to date. They’ve converted just one of six attempts.

- Too many unnecessary penalties taken. The Blues have run in to a stretch the in the last week taking many lazy penalties to negate their man advantage and have been sloppy on changes leading to four bench minors for too many men on the ice.

Looking to December

A 14 game December schedule kicks off Friday the 2nd in Colorado. It is a home and division heavy month. Scottrade Center will host 8 of the 14 matchups. All four rival Central clubs will be an opponent. Detroit three times, Nashville twice, Chicago and Columbus once. Outside their division, but in the West, the Blues will play Colorado twice, as well as Anaheim, San Jose and Phoenix.

The only Eastern Conference opponent is the New York Rangers on the 15th in St. Louis.

There are also four back to back sets. All four of which require travel.
@ Colorado to vs Chicago > Dec. 2-3
@ Nashville to vs. Columbus > Dec. 17-18
vs. Dallas to @ Detroit > Dec. 26-27
vs. Nashville to @ Detroit > Dec. 30-31

One year ago the top performers were Steen (8g, 14p, 14gp) and Halak (5-4-2, 2.36 GAA, .922 save%, 1 SO, 11GP). Both are doing everything right to have another exceptional December.

Given who the Blues play and the eventual cool down that should be expected, a more pedestrian prediction is in order.

There are six games that can be considered “winnable”: @Colorado, Anaheim, Columbus, @Colorado and Dallas and Nashville.

There are four games that can be considered “easily lose-able”: Chicago, San Jose, @Detroit and @Detroit.

There are four remaining games that are “tossups”: Detroit, NY Rangers, @Nashville and @Phoenix.

Historical success is on the Blues side against the Rangers. Nashville has been struggling and Phoenix is on par with the Note currently.

Predicticed Record: 7-4-3

Injury Updates

- David Perron shed the red no contact practice jersey and is pacing for a return from a concussion sustained over a year ago. Hitchcock has said when he’s ready, he’s coming back full tilt to a top six role. No easing in. His return continues to draw near.

- BJ Crombeen has donned the red sweater and is practicing as well. He is pacing on a December return from a facrtured left shoulder sustained in the last preseason game in early October.

- Defensemen Kent Huskins is out with an ankle injury and will be reevaluated some time in late December.

- Colaiacovo remains out with a hamstring injury he sustained in the Blues 4-1 win over Florida on November 17th. There is no estimated time for his return.

- Sobotka returned to practice with a full face mask on December 1st. He has been out of the lineup since taking a clearing attempt to the mouth on November 25th against Calgary.

- Pietrangelo was sick the last week of November and may miss the first few games of December. He should be good to go once he returns.

What to Watch For?

- Halak and Elliott. Will they both continue their exceptional standard of play or regress?

- Can Berglund and Stewart get their acts together offensively?

- Will Perron make his return to the game? What type of impact will he have on Berglund and Stewart?

- How long till Colaiacovo returns and some depth is recouperated on the backend?

- The growth of Cole and Russell’s production levels.