Ranting & Raving: Free D’Agostini & Grachev
Pardon me as I channel John Madden’s analytical skills in to the world of hockey.
“If a hockey team wants to win games, they have to score more goals than the other team… BAM!”
Such a simple concept, but one ringing very true right now with the St. Louis Blues.
Coming in to Wednesday the Note sit tied for 16th in the NHL in soring with Florida and Nashville. Such company should indicate how bad the situation is. But let’s let some numbers do the talking.
All three have put 28 pucks behind opposing netminders in 11 games for a 2.55 per game average. The power play is dead last and converting at a 8.3% rate. Even Columbus who owns just two wins and five points has a more effective man advantage unit.
Couple the lack of finishing with their 12th best Shots For per game rate, 31.0, and the conclusion is obvious. They’re getting a high number of low percentage scoring opportunities. As easy as it is to see on the TV with the excessive perimeter play and failed execution of the dump and chase, the numbers explain the problem.
Head coach Davis Payne has tried and tried and tried and tried… you get the point. Lines have been shuffled, reshuffled, cut, stacked, cut again. He’s handling the lines like the guy at the poker table who wants to show off how awesome he is at shuffling the deck. Yeah, the same guy that is always first or second out of the game.
Maybe, it’s time to free Matt D’Agostini and Evgeny Grachev?
D’Agostini is second in goals (4) and leads the NHL with a Plus-9 rating. Clearly he’s getting the job done, but his efforts translate in to a meager 14:52 ATOI. He’s found himself on the 4th line multiple times though he keeps producing.
Grachev had significant chemistry working with David Backes in the preseason. Someone who is a needed offensive leader and is off to another standard slow start. Grachev has paid his dues on the 4th line as well. Seeing just 9:00 ATOI and taking one or two spare shifts with a scoring line. His skill set and current motivation level dictates an legitimate opportunity in the top six.
Yet the likes of Chris Stewart who hasn’t scored a goal since October 13th still averages over 18 minutes played a game. Patrik Berglund averages over 17 minutes with just 5 points in 11 games and a Minus-3 rating, but has regressed in to the same inconsistencies that have plagued the majority of his professional career. Though Oshie was benched for a period, he still maintains a large workload. He too plays over 17 minutes a game yet has 1 goal adn 5 points.
Perhaps my biggest beef with the current lineup setup is Vladimir Sobotka. The owner of just three assists averages more ice time than D’Agostini.
Four goals and six points compared to three assists. really?
There is a consensus understanding that Sobotka has a high level of hockey sense and can execute Payne’s game plan, but the fact remains he doesn’t produce as much offense as D’Agostini does or Grachev can potentially. He is not a long term top 6 option. His short term usefulness in said role has expired for the time being.
Roll the dice. Make a change.
With the November schedule tilted heavily towards home ice advantage, the safe bet is that dynamic will not change. Expect those struggling with high expectations to keep plugging away in conditions that should favor an upswing. That said, there’s never a better time to send a message that not just Oshie and Jaroslav Halak fall in under to the “Performance Plays” umbrella. Every single member of the Blues should. The practice just hasn’t matched theory.
I’m not advocating they play 20 minutes a game, but a couple where they see 17 to 18 minutes while Berglund and Stewart are scaled back a bit as a reminder that everyone is replaceable when they don’t meet requirements.
Think about it. What harm would a Grachev-Backes-D’Agostini line cause? Certainly no more than Backes-Sobotka-Oshie with a random winger inserted next to the Berglund-Stewart duo. They can’t produce any less.
Make one more switch up even though it appears you don’t want to coach Payne or you may find yourself off the table sooner than you should be.
