What the Kovalchuk Signing Tells Us
The fog surrounding the NHL off-season was lifted Monday morning as the news of Ilya Kovalchuk’s landmark contract circumnavigated the twitterverse. News of the Flyers and Lightning deal swapping Simon Gagne for Matt Walker and and a 4th was quick to follow. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman says the timing was mere happenstance. Odd timing or not the two biggest clogs in the free agency drain have been
removed.
Or have they?
The Kovalchuk deal has thrown up red flags all over the league. Questions
regarding loophole exploitation, CBA legitimacy and precedent setting. When the dust settles, where does this leave us?
Further Verification of “Have’s vs. Have Not’s”
In the NHL there is a distinguishable gap between two levels of teams. Those with the financial backing to spend and those who can’t. Teams can flow back and forth with periods of winning and losing, ownership changes, and corporate backing. There are some teams that are all but locked in to their end of the spectrum.
New Jersey won the war for Kovalchuk against LA because of this dynamic. New Jersey has the winning pedigree, newer building, large TV market, stability in ownership. They can spend the money because the money will be there.
LA just couldn’t match the money. Kings GM Dean Lombardi was quoted saying as much on Monday. Their offer of 15 years and $80 million was the max they could go. Kovalchuk just wanted more. Spending more would risk the teams ability to cover payroll for key future players.
Reinforcement that Rebuilding Teams Must Be Patient
There are many teams coming out of the lockout that have rebuilt their
organization through the draft. Chicago and Pittsburgh are the prime examples of how it can work. They are also teams that have rolled the dice on high dollar acquisitions. Chicago taking in Marian Hossa and Pittsburgh trading future depth for Hossa two years before.
If the figures on Kovalchuk’s deal are true, then roughly 80% of his contract is paid in the first 60% of his contract. Taking the Kings offer this would have
had them pay out $64 million in salary over the first 9 seasons. A $7 million or
so per season pay check. Not so horrible given that there are other contracts out there at that value on winning teams.
Then again those teams don’t have to re-sign a 21 year old Norris Finalist. They don’t have to re-sign a two-way “top 4″ defenseman. They don’t need to re-sign a budding power forward. Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson, and Wayne Simmonds could all easily command $4 million per year contracts or more in the summer of 2011.
Maybe not so much for Simmonds, but Doughty could earn well more than $4 million per. With Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, and Ryan Smyth all with good sized contracts already, adding an additional $12-$15 million per could completely handicap the Kings ability to maintain quality depth players.
This is the same position the Blues are in. After taking care of Erik Johnson
and David Perron this summer (and possibly again in two seasons) they will need to re-sign David Backes, TJ Oshie, Roman Polak, and Patrik Berglund. Grant it the Blues are in a bit of an ownership pickle, but that’s why they avoided the Kovalchuk circus to begin with. Even in better financial standing they would have eaten up such a large chunk of payroll retaining depth would be very difficult.
Players Use Whatever They Can to Gain Leverage
I don’t seen anything wrong with a player looking out for a big contract.
Everyone wants to be paid as much as possible. Where athletes often differ is
that several employers are vying for their services. Allowing them the ability
to inflate their value by playing one perspective employer against another.
Did Kovalchuk do this?
Rumors made the rounds that Mrs. Kovalchuk wanted to go to LA. Did her husband ever seriously consider it? Or was LA his leverage against Uncle Lou out in Jersey? Lombardi made his intentions and limits quite clear. Was Devils GM Lou Lamoriello as clear to start? It sounds like some convincing was needed if “all the right reasons” lead Ilya back to the Devils.
I’m all for Ilya’s rights to go for a big payday. I’m not in favor of leading
someone else along to work another option.
Lamoriello has made his deal with the Devil. He now has Patrik Elias and Brian Rolston under big contracts at an age where they can’t be moved. Zach Parise and Travis Zajac have to be paid at some point as well. Can NJ afford to lose those two and take Kovalchuk going forward? Perhaps Lou is used to dealing with the Devil, but this time I don’t think he won the fiddle made of gold.
