Where is Kariya Going?
It’s that time of year again isn’t it? The season is roughly 2/3 done and the first “trade deadline” is approaching with the impending trade freeze due to the Olympics. The real deadline comes soon after the conclusion of the games in Vancouver. With the Blues inconsistent play and being six points out with five teams to jump, its easy to understand why the seller rumors are out there.
Due to his considerable monetary price tag, Paul Kariya has not been a widely spread name in the rumor mill. He’s out there, but not as much as Ponikarovsky, Whitney, or even Raffi Torres. Yet, there still could be two legitimate suitors. The Pittsburgh Penguins and Vancouver Canucks.
Why Pittsburgh?
The Ray Shero Connection
In speaking to a few Pittsburgh natives who cover the Penguins I discovered a history with Kariya and Ray Shero. Shero was an Assistant GM of the Predators during Kariya’s years in Nashville. While the Blues were pitching their team to Paul, so was Shero and his new team the Pittsburgh Penguins. Ray wanted to bring Paul on board, but it did not work out. Right or wrong, it appears Paul chose the Blues more lucrative offer. If there is one trend in professional sports (especially in hockey), GMs like to bring in players they know from previous teams. Again, there is a history between the two.
Need a Rental Top 6 Winger
The Pens are looking to solidify winger spots next season via internal acquisitions. Mainly in hopes of freeing up money to bring back both Gonchar and Letang (rumored to be $7mil total per year between the two). In the meantime, the Pens are full of Top-6/Top-9 Tweener forwards like Dupuis, Fedotenko, Talbot, Rupp, Kennedy, etc. While all find their way in Bylsma’s system, they are not the type of winger you really “want” playing with Crosby and Malkin. The Pens need to acquire a player who can provide even strenth production while not being a defensive liability. Blues fans have seen what Paul can do with the Blues limit passing abilities (especially in transition). I woudl imagine the Pens would love to see Paul set up on breakaway after breakaway by Gonchar, Letang, and Goligoski.
It’s Worked Before
While Bill Guerin is not the same style of player as Kariya, they are in similar situations. Aging forwards past their prime years, bringing experience and production. Shero was willing to cut a deal last year to bring in a vital veteran for the stretch run. He was willing to pull the trigger on a much larger deal for Hossa. He pulled a deal moving mid level prospects for players like Gary Roberts and Laraque. Ray Shero is willing to take a calculated risk to get a player needed. So far his deadline deals have resulted in players that have made impacts in getting the team to the Finals…twice. Ray will take another calculated risk and the Blues are not likely to ask for much.
Process of Elimination
Kariya is one of about five wingers that are going to be sought after rentals who can put up points. There are likely 10 or so teams looking for that type of player. It’s possible that other players are off the board before Kariya is dealt and before the Pens can pull the trigger on another deal. When it comes down to the deadline, Kariya could be one of the last men standing and the Pens one of the last buyers.
Why Vancouver?
Experienced Depth is a Good Thing
The Canucks lost to the Hawks in the second round last spring. The team lacked experienced players who were battle tested in the playoffs already. Part of their offseason fix was to acquire Mikael Samuelsson. Even with the emergence of Mason Raymond, the Canucks could still use more depth. Kariya has a career 46 Playoff games in six different trips to the post season.
Coming Home Party
Kariya was born in Vancouver and teams do like to bring home their local boys. Some players like going home as well.
Assests to Burn
Where the Pens are willing to take the right deal at the right cost, the anucks can potentially over pay. The Blues and Canucks have been rumored recently to be talking about Corey Schneider, the Canucks top Goalie prospect. While I don’t beleive the rumors that Backes is/was involved, Kariya (and possibly Colaiacovo) could be. Vancouver has Luongo locked up long term and can find a player better suited for back up duties than Schneider down the road.
Problems in Making the Deal
Cap Space
Both the Penguins and Canucks are pretty close to the cap. To take on Kariya and his roughly $1.4-$1.5mil left in cap hits, both teams may hae to send salary back. Are the Blues willing to take someone like a Dupuis, who has another season on his contract ($1.4 mil per)? Will the Blues take Wellwood and Lukowich back with Schneider? So long as the salary coming back is a rental (UFA come July 1) then I would have to say yes.
No Movement Clause
Kariya has a NMC, meaning he has to agree to where he is moved to and cannot go to the minors (he wouldn’t anyways) with out his consent. If Paul doesn’t want to go East or doesn’t want to go home, he doesn’t have to. Unless we have a Doug Weight type situation. If the Blues are pretty far out and he can go to a team that’s in, I don’t think he would pass up the chance.
What Would the Deal Look Like?
Pittsburgh
1. Excalating Draft Pick (similar to Guerin) + Roster Player (Fedotenko or Dupuis, possibly Eaton if a Defensemen went with Kariya)
2. Mid Level Prospect (Jeffrey, Veilleux, Pierro-Zabotel) + Roster Player
Vancouver
1. Roster Player (Bernier, Wellwood) + Pick + Schneider
2. Roster Player + AHL Level Prospect + Schneider
Final Destination
Where does Paul go? Between the two, I would guess Vancouver. I don’t see Pittsburgh wanting to pay the price for a Kariya when they might be able to get a Ponikarovsky cheaper. Vancouver has more assests they are likely willing to move. The Pens are trying to hold on to theirs for now. I wouldn’t discount the Scot Mellanby connection and his knowledge of the Blues. Rumors were going around this week surrounding Schneider, Blues waiving of clauses, Eller/Junland call ups, etc. Where there is smoke, there could be fire.In checking in to the latest rumors, some sources have said that something is in the works. I am not trying to start a rumor, so please don’t take it that way. However, the thought is out there that the talks are on.
My Final Guess?
Bernier (or a roster player like Wellwood) + Schneider for Kariya + an AHL Prospect (Sonne, Palushaj, etc).
At least as the core of the deal, add on pieces can be added either way.
