Divestment?

After Saturday’s loss to the Blue Jackets I ran across an interesting figure.

Brad Boyes and Paul Kariya combine for the following:
$10 million in cap hits
102 Games Played this season
59 total points
.578 Points/Game
20 Goals

Yes, the numbers really are that bleak. Two players totaling roughly 1/5 of the teams cap hits barely scrapes up a point every other game played.

I think an argument can be made that this team doesn’t have a true star player. Tkachuk and Kariya are past their prime. McDonald was never the go to guy. Backes, Oshie, Berglund, Perron, and even Steen are still growing as players. Brad Boyes has scored 76 goals in his last two seasons in St. Louis. Far more than anyone else. Kariya comes in with the second strongest offensive pedigree on the team. Yet both players are on pace to have a combined total of 88 Points. That is an investment of roughly $136,000 per point registered by those two.

By comparison lets look at the trio of Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton, and Patrick Marleau. Thier combined cap hit is $21 million. That is roughly 37/38% of San Jose’s cap hits. Combined they have 182 points in 162 games. That is a 1.12 points game pace. Together they project to be at 277 points in 246 games. Their combined cost per point at their current projection is a little over $75,000.

I know that I am picking basically the two opposite ends of the spectrum to show my point…but stick with me.

I did this to show how far off the Blues are from competing and reaching the next level. The Blues top end salaries fail to produce. The post lockout NHL is about getting the most for your money possible when it comes to your big investments. We need not look farther than Jay McKee to see where a lot of money spent for little offensive return hinders your team. The Blues big investments have failed or greatly regressed this season. I do not think its fair to expect a group of largely secondary players to compete at the highest level and win every night when there isn’t a go to player to put you over the top.

Am I saying the Blues season is over? No, I am not. Look what the Blues did without maximizing their points per money spent on their biggest contracts last season. What I am saying is that it is time for the Blues to look at divesting their bigger investments to free up money for a better investment.

The ability to divest in Kariya is already there. He is an unrestricted free agent come July 1st and the Blues can wash their hands clean then, or possibly at the trade deadline. I’ve heard some fans say they would like him back, at about half the price. At $3 million and his current pace he is giving you points for every $71,000 spent. That’s not too bad, but I just don’t feel that is the right way to go. It’s time to move on.

Divesting Brad Boyes is much more difficult. Not only because of his contact ($4 million for two more seasons), but because of his previous production. Do you gamble and hope that he bounces back and risk being burnt if he doesn’t? I think that depends upon the return you have via trade. If Boyes is moved along with another “big contract” lacking offensive production (Brewer and Jackman), can you add in a second player via free agency.

For example, let’s propose a deal between Calgary and St. Louis. The Flames take Brewer and Boyes while the Blues acquire Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf is a $6.50 million cap hit for several years down the road. You’ve divested $ 10.25 million to acquire $6.25 million in an investment. Leaving roughly $4 million to invest further. Let’s also proposed that Calgary winger Rene Bourque makes it to free agency July 1st. The Blues sign him to an offer that has a $4mil cap hit.

Boyes + Brewer would be $10.25 million spent for 75 combined points. A total of $136,000+ spent per point.

Phaneuf + Bourque would be $10.25 million spent for 98 combined points (based off points/game x 82 games). A total of $104,000+ spent per point.

That is roughly a savings of $32,000 per point. Not a a dramatic amount, but what it does bring are certain intangibles.

Phaneuf is 24 and Bourque is 28. Brewer is 33 and Boyes is 27. Overall you have more money invested in younger players who are more likely to trend towards positive growth compared to trending down older players. Bourque and Phaneuf are known for being very physical players. While Brewer has improved in that facet, neither Blues player has a distinct physical edge. In today’s NHL size  and strength + skill are the way to go. Bourque and Phaneuf are upgrades there.

There are countless other scenarios that I know Al MacInnis, John Davidson, Larry Pleau, Doug Armstrong, and the Blues Capologists are tinkering with. The Blues could play for Marleau with fried up money. Maybe acquire a big fish like Kovalchuk with freed up space. Maybe acquire a power play QB in Kaberle. The bottom line is that in a pivotal season the Blues have in regressed while other teams have progressed. The Blues have a plan, but has that changed? Are the Blues willing to cut dead weight that is holding the team back?

The scenarios are out there to allow the Blues to revamp this team with more prodcutive players with positive production trend ability. Can the Blues make them happen? Is the front office willing to take the risk at the trade deadline poker game and  free agency craps table?  Blues fans will have a good idea where the team will head when we enter the Olympic break. From there the team can go any number of directions.