Familiar Territory
The St. Louis Blues are no stranger to adversity. Since the Laurie’s gutted this organization and shipped marquee player Chris Pronger to Edmonton, the Blues have been in a full blown rebuild under the owner ship group headed by Dave Checketts. Rebuilds are a process with most of the time spent not dressing a competitive team. After 3 years of hard work, the 08-09 season was the first major step taken in bringing the Blues back as a competitive team. That step did not come easily. Many players (and a coach) had the season (or second half) of their careers to get the Blues to the NHL playoffs. Now the 09-10 version of the Blues face a similar task, an uphill climb back to the second season.
How does this season’s squad measure up to that magical run barely a year ago?
In terms of team points and standings the Blues currently have 56 points after 54 games played. In 08-09 the Blues were 22-25-7 (51 points) in 54 games played. It took the Blues 92 points and the 8th spot went for 91 points. That means in the final 28 games the Blues took 41 points, 73% of the possible points. In 2010 the working theory is that it will take 95 points to make the playoffs in the West. That puts the current team 39 points back wit 28 games to go. Can the Blues take 70% (69.6%) of their remaining points? While the Blues are only 4 points out of the 8th spot in the West as of January 28th, they have basically the same hill to climb to make it back to the playoffs.
This time around the push will be much tougher. The teams in front of them have improved. Phoenix is not a push over, nor is Nashville. Detroit is getting healthier and is getting good goaltending. Minnesota is playing better as that team adapts to a new front office/coach. Anahiem is still lead by 3 amazing players and have added more (if they can stay healthy). Colorado is a very strog team after some upgrades and improved health. Not to mention the elite teams like San Jose, Chicago, and Vancouver still strong. There is no easy road in to the playoffs any more.
We know the path that must be taken. We know that last years team got the job done. If the road to the playoffs is more difficult to go down, have the Blues improved their roster to equal the task?
In the 08-09 season push the Blues were defined by the play of a few players. None more important than Chris Mason, but we’ll get to him in a moment. The primary offensive threats were Brad Boyes, David Backes, and Andy McDonald. The forwards in general were hard working, extremely physical and defensibly responsible. The corps of defensemen were a true motley crew. A young veteran in Jackman, a “rookie” standout in Polak, the enigmatic Colaiacovo and Woywitka, stable and steady McKee and Weaver. A whole lot of defense in not much offense. How did this group get it done? Periphery players like Winchester, McClement, Colaiacovo, and Weaver had career seasons. Polak and David Backes jumped on the scene. TJ Osie and David Perron provided youthful secondary points. Basically everyone in front of Chris Mason played to his highest level possible.
No other player had a bigger impact than Mason. He was the most obvious example of a Blues player having the best year of his career in 08-09. Mason lead the Blues to take 60% of the possible points when he started while posting a career high in Games Started (51), Wins (27) and Shutouts (6). He also posted career second bests in GAA (2.41) and Save % (.916) (in seasons he started 20 games or more). The vast majority of his impact play came in the last 3 months of the season, when the Blues made their push.
This seasons team started off much the same as the 08-09 version. Struggling early to close out wins and not getting enough goal support for Mason. Who is leading the offensive charge? No one really. Backes and Boyes have struggled greatly this season and until Payne took over both had few stretches of productive play. McDonald has been McDonald, but there is no support. Patrik Berglund who started strong and finished weak last season continued his weak play. Oshie was solid, but not producing. Perron was inconsistent in terms of production. Basically adding back Kariya, Brewer, and Johnson some how changed the counterattack offensive mojo the Blues created in 08-09. The defensive core was solid, even with some changes, but was not as consistent as needed. Till the Murray firing, the Blues looked like a team that couldn’t duplicate. The improvement from other teams passed them by.
Enter Davis Payne and the mojo slowly comes back. Backes and Oshie are consistent. Boyes level of play has been elevated and its only time before he starts scoring again. McDonald has been McDonald, Kariya has improved. The offense is crawling back. The defensemen are adapting to Payne’s system and its showing positives more than natives. Now the roster is different with no real changes. Players like Oshie, Berglund, Perron, and Boyes have been “released” to be more creative and Payne has sought out to empower them. Can we say that shift is working? I would think most fans would say yes. Alex Steen has flourished offensively on all lines and on the power play point. Even the old man Tkachuk is contributing. The defense is more active than ever. The trade off of more offense for a little less defensive security has seemed to pay off. Players most fans would describe as “stay at home defensemen” (Polak, Brewer) are pitching in the play and contributing points. Heading down this season’s second half stretch, can we say that this roster is improved over last seasons? I would say yes, the team is trending positive thanks to David Payne.
We are back to Chris Mason again. While fans can finally say that the roster in front of Mason is playing more to expectations, can we say the same for Mason? Before Murray was let go I would say no. He had not been as good or better to meet the challenge at hand. He showed flashes, but was struggling with consistency. Again, not all his fault but it was still an issue. Since Payne came in Mason has allowed 21 goals in 10 starts, that’s a 2.10 GAA. He has stopped 265 of 286 shots against for a .926 Save %.
When looking at this season’s goaltending situation we cannot forget Ty Conklin. Maybe the best free agent signing by the Blues under the current regime. In 8 starts Conklin has 8 Wins, a 2.61 GAA and a .921 Save %. Compare that to last season’s back up goalies? A sour and showing his age Manny Legace and a green rookie in Ben Bishop. Conklin is a big upgrade who can (and already has) given Mason days off while giving the Blues wins.
Are the Blues trending up at the right time again? Since Payne took over the play has improved and the Blues are 7-5-2, taking 16 out of 28 possible points (58%). The Blues were 17-17-6, taking 40 of a possible 80 points (50%). The 8% raise isn’t enough. As we saw last year its going to take a 70% run in the last games to be in a playoff position from the Blues current position. Can they get it done? Did this lineup learn enough last year on how to take charge of their season and take over games? Can Davis Payne channel that experience and add it to his up-tempo system that is producing results? The last 8 games before the Olympic break will tell us a lot. The Blues face 8 Games in 15 days with three back-to-back sets. The Blues aren’t playing the Oilers, Stars, or Wild. These are games against Chicago (twice), Detroit, San Jose, Colorado, and the Caps. All those teams are in the Top 4 of their conference or a top-level team that is getting healthy. If the Blues can eek out points and stay close coming back from the Olympics, there is every reason to believe they can pull off a late season surge again. All can’t be lost yet, sportsclubstats.com says the Blues have an 11.1% chance.
