January 2010

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Divestment?

By Jeff Quirin on January 31, 2010

After Saturday’s loss to the Blue Jackets I ran across an interesting figure.

Brad Boyes and Paul Kariya combine for the following:
$10 million in cap hits
102 Games Played this season
59 total points
.578 Points/Game
20 Goals

Yes, the numbers really are that bleak. Two players totaling roughly 1/5 of the teams cap hits barely scrapes up a point every other game played.

I think an argument can be made that this team doesn’t have a true star player. Tkachuk and Kariya are past their prime. McDonald was never the go to guy. Backes, Oshie, Berglund, Perron, and even Steen are still growing as players. Brad Boyes has scored 76 goals in his last two seasons in St. Louis. Far more than anyone else. Kariya comes in with the second strongest offensive pedigree on the team. Yet both players are on pace to have a combined total of 88 Points. That is an investment of roughly $136,000 per point registered by those two.

By comparison lets look at the trio of Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton, and Patrick Marleau. Thier combined cap hit is $21 million. That is roughly 37/38% of San Jose’s cap hits. Combined they have 182 points in 162 games. That is a 1.12 points game pace. Together they project to be at 277 points in 246 games. Their combined cost per point at their current projection is a little over $75,000.

I know that I am picking basically the two opposite ends of the spectrum to show my point…but stick with me.

I did this to show how far off the Blues are from competing and reaching the next level. The Blues top end salaries fail to produce. The post lockout NHL is about getting the most for your money possible when it comes to your big investments. We need not look farther than Jay McKee to see where a lot of money spent for little offensive return hinders your team. The Blues big investments have failed or greatly regressed this season. I do not think its fair to expect a group of largely secondary players to compete at the highest level and win every night when there isn’t a go to player to put you over the top.

Am I saying the Blues season is over? No, I am not. Look what the Blues did without maximizing their points per money spent on their biggest contracts last season. What I am saying is that it is time for the Blues to look at divesting their bigger investments to free up money for a better investment.

The ability to divest in Kariya is already there. He is an unrestricted free agent come July 1st and the Blues can wash their hands clean then, or possibly at the trade deadline. I’ve heard some fans say they would like him back, at about half the price. At $3 million and his current pace he is giving you points for every $71,000 spent. That’s not too bad, but I just don’t feel that is the right way to go. It’s time to move on.

Divesting Brad Boyes is much more difficult. Not only because of his contact ($4 million for two more seasons), but because of his previous production. Do you gamble and hope that he bounces back and risk being burnt if he doesn’t? I think that depends upon the return you have via trade. If Boyes is moved along with another “big contract” lacking offensive production (Brewer and Jackman), can you add in a second player via free agency.

For example, let’s propose a deal between Calgary and St. Louis. The Flames take Brewer and Boyes while the Blues acquire Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf is a $6.50 million cap hit for several years down the road. You’ve divested $ 10.25 million to acquire $6.25 million in an investment. Leaving roughly $4 million to invest further. Let’s also proposed that Calgary winger Rene Bourque makes it to free agency July 1st. The Blues sign him to an offer that has a $4mil cap hit.

Boyes + Brewer would be $10.25 million spent for 75 combined points. A total of $136,000+ spent per point.

Phaneuf + Bourque would be $10.25 million spent for 98 combined points (based off points/game x 82 games). A total of $104,000+ spent per point.

That is roughly a savings of $32,000 per point. Not a a dramatic amount, but what it does bring are certain intangibles.

Phaneuf is 24 and Bourque is 28. Brewer is 33 and Boyes is 27. Overall you have more money invested in younger players who are more likely to trend towards positive growth compared to trending down older players. Bourque and Phaneuf are known for being very physical players. While Brewer has improved in that facet, neither Blues player has a distinct physical edge. In today’s NHL size and strength + skill are the way to go. Bourque and Phaneuf are upgrades there.

There are countless other scenarios that I know Al MacInnis, John Davidson, Larry Pleau, Doug Armstrong, and the Blues Capologists are tinkering with. The Blues could play for Marleau with fried up money. Maybe acquire a big fish like Kovalchuk with freed up space. Maybe acquire a power play QB in Kaberle. The bottom line is that in a pivotal season the Blues have in regressed while other teams have progressed. The Blues have a plan, but has that changed? Are the Blues willing to cut dead weight that is holding the team back?

The scenarios are out there to allow the Blues to revamp this team with more prodcutive players with positive production trend ability. Can the Blues make them happen? Is the front office willing to take the risk at the trade deadline poker game and free agency craps table? Blues fans will have a good idea where the team will head when we enter the Olympic break. From there the team can go any number of directions.

Posted in Articles | Tagged Brad Boyes, Calgary Flames, Dion Phaneuf, Eric Brewer, Paul Kariya, Rene Bourque, St. Louis Blues | 3 Responses

GameBlog 01-30-10: Blues vs Blue Jackets

By Jeff Quirin on January 30, 2010

Columbus Blue Jackets

vs.

St. Louis Blues

Pregame

…and the beat goes on…

The Blues face off against Division rival Columbus tonight in a game that could further bury Columbus or propel the Blues. Columbus sits in 14th place in the West with 51 points, 10 points behind 8th place Detroit. The Blues are in 13th with 56 points, 5 points off the pace. Detroit does not play tonight, but does on Sunday. A Columbus loss and a Detroit win could put them 12 points out and keep the Blues about 5 points back. It could be 6 for the Blues with a win, Detroit loss, and Calgary win over the lowly Oilers tonight.

Columbus comes in as inconsistent as ever. They haven’t won back to back games since January 10th and have lost 6 of their last 10 in regulation. Columbus vice appears to be scoring. In their last 10 games Columbus has allowed 3 goals or more in each loss. The Blues need to look to their power play to generate chances and convert to give the Blues some added offensive to go along with their 1-2 even strength goals a night.

JR over at the Post has his Morning Skate blog up. Talking about DJ King and his return.

Lou Korac has up his Gameday blog as well. Here are the lineups from the morning skate.

Kariya-Backes-Oshie
McDonald-Tkachuk-Boyes
Steen-McClement-Perron
Winchester-McClementCrombeen

Jackman-Polak
Brewer-Johnson
Sydor-Weaver

Mason in net.

DJ King is back from Peoria but will not play tonight. Cam Janssen is a healthy scratch. Carlo Colaiacovo will not play although he thinks he is ready to go. Payne is likely sticking with what works. The Sydor-Weaver pair was pretty good during Carlo’s absence.

Lou says to expect Mathieu Garon to start for the Jackets.

I will likely be out and about this evening so will be catching the game on the DVR and will behind live play. Will update as I get through each period.

First Period

What a period by the Backes line. From the first shift to their last.Good early tone and work ethic set up by that line.

The Blues forecheck is just outworking the Blue Jackets defensemen. There wasn’t many clear turnovers in the period, but a lot of pressure and the Jackets exit was rarely not contested. Steen might be the best forechecker on this team.

For all the talent Perron has, he really seems to not read the quick developing play well. I know he had some sizeable real estate to shoot at, but he needs to get that puck off the far leg pads. Steen was right there for a rebound. He made up for it on the very nice play to end the period.

Soft first goal by the team. Not so much all on Mason, but you can’t allow Dorsett to walk in the slot like that.

Columbus did have some good chances, but Mason was up to the task. As was Sydor and Steen. A couple blocks and a couple of limping trips to the bench.

The Blues hard work lead to a late period power play. With the zone clear with about 14 seconds left the period seemed over. However, the Blues rush up ice and Perron makes the right read and dumps the puck off to Oshie on the off wing. Backes camps in front of Garon and Oshie shoots low and on net. Backes spreads the legs, and puts his stick down the middle. Tip in for his 11th goal of the season.

Blues go in to the second tied 1-1. Late period goals can kill a team (we’ve seen it happen to us). Blues get the jump early and they can put Columbus out of this game.

Second Period

This period was a little more evenly matched. Both teams generated chances and pressure.

Winchester v Boll a draw?

It’s sad that another questionable call leads to a goal against the Blues. Late in the period Eric Brewer taps away Derek Brassards stick. They shove and Raffi Torres injects himself as a 3rd man in. Scuffle ensues and some how Roman Polak is given the only penalty? Really? Its not like the call at the end of the first period was questionable. How often are the scuffles in front turned in to 5 on 3 power plays with about 2 minutes left in a period? Why not even it up and let the teams play.

Here is it refs, plain and simple. You are horribly inconsistent. You can look to virtually every game each night to find a questionable call leading to a game changing event. Why? I know its up to the players to decide the game, but the refs do not need to make inconsistent calls to tilt game events to one side or the other. Either way Columbus scores late in the second on the 2-man advantage.

Third Period

The Blues and Columbus went back and forth. Refs missed calls on Columbus, Brad Boyes missed a W-I-D-E open net and takes a lazy high stick. Columbus goes on the power play late.

Just when you think the game is over the Blues pressure hard on the PK and kill the penalty. The Blues continue to ramp up their even strength play and pressure Columbus late. What happened to create the McDonald goal was quite interesting.

Rick Nash, the Columbus Captain decides its a good idea to use his stick to flip a glove on the ice at a Blues player carring the puck. The ref finally recognizers the penalty and whistles Nash. The Blues create chances as Erik Johnson draws his point defender to the middle for a nice backhand saucer to McDonald. Andy walks and in bang its 2-2 with little time left.

Let me ask Columbus fans…where is the leadership and intelligent play from your Captain? A dumb penalty on the raod, in the third, on a team pressuring you with all the momentum. Not much leadership in my estimation. Hopefully that level of play for Nash continues on to Team Canada.

Overtime

The Blues create a couple of chances with Polak and the great play by McDonald. Kariya takes the blue line and finds McDonald sprinting in behind two defenders. Andy goes skate to stick, forehand to backhand and tries to get it past Garon’s left leg pads. Garon answers and the play comes back up ice. Kris Russel ends up with the puck over the blue line. Kariya has him marked, but instead decides to cover the pass to the 4th man in. The problem is that no one is left to take on Russell. As we have seen with Mason before, he is handcuffed glove side and gives up a weak goal. Jackets win 3-2.

Recap

I love the desire shown by the Blues in the third to absorb the penalty and come back. Its an encouraging sign. However, its one mental mistake and a soft goal that burns this team again. Kariya fails to cover his man and Mason cannot stop a shot that Garon did on his end. Middle of the road teams are defined by their goaltending. Tonight Garon was better.

There were encouraging signs from the Backes and Tkachuk lines at even strength. Solid, aggressive play.

When Steen failed to return for the third, it really hurt this teams chances of taking the two points. Steen has fully blossomed under Payne and his forechecking and puck hounding presence was missed. Alex took a slapper right off the laces. He limped off but came back only to wipe out while trying to cover a point shot. All that has been said is “lower body”. Just when we got 100% healthy….the injury bug bites again.

I was not really impressed by the play of Brewer and Johnson together. Too often I thought they were backed up by one forechecker and failed multiple times to move the puck up ice quickly. EJ later proved he as up to the task, but I was not so impressed by Brewer. Other than Johnson’s multiple single man pressure back-ups, I thought he played a very confident game.

Anyone else really tired of Columbus defensemen scoring goals on Mason? It just happens every game I swear.

Faceoffs continue to be an issue for the Blues. Columbus won 30 of 53 faceoffs, 60%. The Blues just cant win games when their faceoff precentage is so low. Their puck movement game isnt good enough to generate the needed possession when you lose so many faceoffs.
Berglund 1-7
McClement 7-15
Tkachuk 4-9
Just not good enough. can the Blues acquire a faceoff winner? I would think that needs to become a priority. Kreps, Stajan, Belanger are some names that could be moved around the deadline who are in the Top 40 that could be moved.

Brad Boyes needs to get his head straight. I just can’t get over how he can’t seem to score this season. The first chance on the power play was a great save by Garon, but Boyes didn’t lift the puck. The previous two seasons that puck is in just under the crossbar. This year its barely above the pad. The second chance , missing a wide open net. What makes it worse is that Garon was out to the far left and Boyes pulled the shot wide back towards Garon. I know its a fast game and a hard play, but after scoring 76 goals in two full seasons in St. Louis he needs to bury that. The Blues are paying Boyes $4mil and not getting much impact.

The Kariya scoreless streak in St. Louis carries on. McDonald extended his point streak to 7 games.

With the one point the Blues are now 4 Points back of Detroit for the 8th spot in the West. Detroit pays the Pens tomorrow on NBC. Root for the Pens if you’re a Blues fan tomorrow, the Blues need the buffer.

Posted in Articles, GameBlogs | Tagged Chris Mason, Columbus Blue Jackets, Mathieu Garon, St. Louis Blues | Leave a response

Familiar Territory

By Jeff Quirin on January 30, 2010

The St. Louis Blues are no stranger to adversity. Since the Laurie’s gutted this organization and shipped marquee player Chris Pronger to Edmonton, the Blues have been in a full blown rebuild under the owner ship group headed by Dave Checketts. Rebuilds are a process with most of the time spent not dressing a competitive team. After 3 years of hard work, the 08-09 season was the first major step taken in bringing the Blues back as a competitive team. That step did not come easily. Many players (and a coach) had the season (or second half) of their careers to get the Blues to the NHL playoffs. Now the 09-10 version of the Blues face a similar task, an uphill climb back to the second season.

How does this season’s squad measure up to that magical run barely a year ago?

In terms of team points and standings the Blues currently have 56 points after 54 games played. In 08-09 the Blues were 22-25-7 (51 points) in 54 games played. It took the Blues 92 points and the 8th spot went for 91 points. That means in the final 28 games the Blues took 41 points, 73% of the possible points. In 2010 the working theory is that it will take 95 points to make the playoffs in the West. That puts the current team 39 points back wit 28 games to go. Can the Blues take 70% (69.6%) of their remaining points? While the Blues are only 4 points out of the 8th spot in the West as of January 28th, they have basically the same hill to climb to make it back to the playoffs.

This time around the push will be much tougher. The teams in front of them have improved. Phoenix is not a push over, nor is Nashville. Detroit is getting healthier and is getting good goaltending. Minnesota is playing better as that team adapts to a new front office/coach. Anahiem is still lead by 3 amazing players and have added more (if they can stay healthy). Colorado is a very strog team after some upgrades and improved health. Not to mention the elite teams like San Jose, Chicago, and Vancouver still strong. There is no easy road in to the playoffs any more.

We know the path that must be taken. We know that last years team got the job done. If the road to the playoffs is more difficult to go down, have the Blues improved their roster to equal the task?

In the 08-09 season push the Blues were defined by the play of a few players. None more important than Chris Mason, but we’ll get to him in a moment. The primary offensive threats were Brad Boyes, David Backes, and Andy McDonald. The forwards in general were hard working, extremely physical and defensibly responsible. The corps of defensemen were a true motley crew. A young veteran in Jackman, a “rookie” standout in Polak, the enigmatic Colaiacovo and Woywitka, stable and steady McKee and Weaver. A whole lot of defense in not much offense. How did this group get it done? Periphery players like Winchester, McClement, Colaiacovo, and Weaver had career seasons. Polak and David Backes jumped on the scene. TJ Osie and David Perron provided youthful secondary points. Basically everyone in front of Chris Mason played to his highest level possible.

No other player had a bigger impact than Mason. He was the most obvious example of a Blues player having the best year of his career in 08-09. Mason lead the Blues to take 60% of the possible points when he started while posting a career high in Games Started (51), Wins (27) and Shutouts (6). He also posted career second bests in GAA (2.41) and Save % (.916) (in seasons he started 20 games or more). The vast majority of his impact play came in the last 3 months of the season, when the Blues made their push.

This seasons team started off much the same as the 08-09 version. Struggling early to close out wins and not getting enough goal support for Mason. Who is leading the offensive charge? No one really. Backes and Boyes have struggled greatly this season and until Payne took over both had few stretches of productive play. McDonald has been McDonald, but there is no support. Patrik Berglund who started strong and finished weak last season continued his weak play. Oshie was solid, but not producing. Perron was inconsistent in terms of production. Basically adding back Kariya, Brewer, and Johnson some how changed the counterattack offensive mojo the Blues created in 08-09. The defensive core was solid, even with some changes, but was not as consistent as needed. Till the Murray firing, the Blues looked like a team that couldn’t duplicate. The improvement from other teams passed them by.

Enter Davis Payne and the mojo slowly comes back. Backes and Oshie are consistent. Boyes level of play has been elevated and its only time before he starts scoring again. McDonald has been McDonald, Kariya has improved. The offense is crawling back. The defensemen are adapting to Payne’s system and its showing positives more than natives. Now the roster is different with no real changes. Players like Oshie, Berglund, Perron, and Boyes have been “released” to be more creative and Payne has sought out to empower them. Can we say that shift is working? I would think most fans would say yes. Alex Steen has flourished offensively on all lines and on the power play point. Even the old man Tkachuk is contributing. The defense is more active than ever. The trade off of more offense for a little less defensive security has seemed to pay off. Players most fans would describe as “stay at home defensemen” (Polak, Brewer) are pitching in the play and contributing points. Heading down this season’s second half stretch, can we say that this roster is improved over last seasons? I would say yes, the team is trending positive thanks to David Payne.

We are back to Chris Mason again. While fans can finally say that the roster in front of Mason is playing more to expectations, can we say the same for Mason? Before Murray was let go I would say no. He had not been as good or better to meet the challenge at hand. He showed flashes, but was struggling with consistency. Again, not all his fault but it was still an issue. Since Payne came in Mason has allowed 21 goals in 10 starts, that’s a 2.10 GAA. He has stopped 265 of 286 shots against for a .926 Save %.

When looking at this season’s goaltending situation we cannot forget Ty Conklin. Maybe the best free agent signing by the Blues under the current regime. In 8 starts Conklin has 8 Wins, a 2.61 GAA and a .921 Save %. Compare that to last season’s back up goalies? A sour and showing his age Manny Legace and a green rookie in Ben Bishop. Conklin is a big upgrade who can (and already has) given Mason days off while giving the Blues wins.

Are the Blues trending up at the right time again? Since Payne took over the play has improved and the Blues are 7-5-2, taking 16 out of 28 possible points (58%). The Blues were 17-17-6, taking 40 of a possible 80 points (50%). The 8% raise isn’t enough. As we saw last year its going to take a 70% run in the last games to be in a playoff position from the Blues current position. Can they get it done? Did this lineup learn enough last year on how to take charge of their season and take over games? Can Davis Payne channel that experience and add it to his up-tempo system that is producing results? The last 8 games before the Olympic break will tell us a lot. The Blues face 8 Games in 15 days with three back-to-back sets. The Blues aren’t playing the Oilers, Stars, or Wild. These are games against Chicago (twice), Detroit, San Jose, Colorado, and the Caps. All those teams are in the Top 4 of their conference or a top-level team that is getting healthy. If the Blues can eek out points and stay close coming back from the Olympics, there is every reason to believe they can pull off a late season surge again. All can’t be lost yet, sportsclubstats.com says the Blues have an 11.1% chance.

Posted in Articles | Tagged Chris Mason, Davis Payne, St. Louis Blues | Leave a response

Strachan to Peoria | King Recalled | Carlo?

By Jeff Quirin on January 30, 2010

DJ King is set to return to the Blues line up after not playing since Ocotber 24th in Dallas. Image via blues.nhl.com.

According to the Peoria Journal Star, the Blues have sent Defensemen Tyson Strachan back to Peoria following the return of DJ King. Kings conditioning assignment in Peoria was up and it was time to head back to St. Louis. In one game in this recall Strachan played 18+ minutes of solid hockey, registering a shot on goal. DJ King is coming back from a hand injury sustained in his first game this season on October 24th against Dallas. DJ injured his hand in a 3 swing romp of Krys Barch.

With Strachan being the one sent to Peoria, fans should expect to see Carlo Coaliacovo return from IR Saturday night. Carlo has missed the last four games and hasn’t played since the Blues 3-2 loss in Ottawa last week.

The question is do you sit Daryl Sydor or Mike Weaver? Both are similar players in terms of a safe, steady, and stable veteran who can play the penalty kill. With Carlo being a left handed shot, I would assume its back to a Coloaicovo-Weaver pairing.

If you have Colaiacovo on your fantasy team, he is likely safe to take off IR, but I am not so sure if he warrants a start if you have a full load on the blue line tonight. Games just back after injury don’t tend to be good ones for marginal players.

In other Rivermen/Prospect news, Blues 2007 2nd Round pick Aaron Palushaj is injured and is expected to miss all of Peoria’s weekend games.

Posted in Articles, Transactions | Tagged Carlo Colaiacovo, DJ King, Peoria Rivermen, St. Louis Blues, Tyson Strachan | Leave a response

Throwdown Lowdown – Blue Jackets @ Blues 1-30-10

By Tyler Atwood on January 30, 2010

Just had to. Just HAD to. Image via Red Wings blog (ugh), fightnightatthejoe.blogspot.com

The Blues have gone two straight games without playing Cam Janssen . . . and thus, two straight games without a good ol’ scrap. While this is great for Gary Bettman and his friends in New York, it tends to put people like me in a sedated trance without the proper innoculation. In layman’s terms . . . DO NOT WANT! The Blues remain strong at the 5th position with 45 fights and a 21-13-11 season fight record.

The good thing about divisional opponents is that we play them a lot. Thus, they get written about a lot and bloggers like me don’t have to repeat ourselves too much. The Columbus Blue Jackets have been reported about twice already: here and here. In both, it was well marked that the Jackets are not very good at fighting this season for whatever reason. They come into this contest tied with the New York Rangers for 11th in the NHL with 35 fights on the season and 7-15-13 on the season. All four fights between the Blues and Jackets came in the Blues home win back on January 12th. The Jackets are 1-1-2 since January 18th, the last matchup between the Blues and Jackets. The win came from the fists of . . . Rick Nash. AGAIN! He’s obviously taking his captaincy to heart. Or he’s training for his next fight with David Backes.

We’ve mentioned violent winger Jared Boll (6′2″, 210lbs, 4-6-6) on several occasions for these reports. It’s not that he’s an easy target . . . it’s just that he really likes to fight. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Others to look forward to are multi-talented captain winger Nash (6′4″, 218lbs, 2-0-0) and veteran defenseman Mike Commodore (6′5″, 228lbs, 0-0-2, should REALLY wear #64). Those are the only multiple fighters who have not been traded away, waived, sent to the IR or sent to Syracuse. Ken Hitchcock must have missed that memo about the Western Conference being a bit more rugged.

The dream matchup of the evening will likely be Boll against someone like Brad Winchester or BJ Crombeen, as with Janssen out the last two games, there’s no expectation that he would play. I will jinx it by saying this . . . I do not anticipate a fight in this game.

The home team has held serve in the Blues-Blue Jackets season series thus far. Let’s hope that continues tonight, and maybe the Blues will play like January 12th (violent) instead of like January 18th (largely passive).

LET’S GO BLUES!!!!!

Information obtained via the incomparable Fried Chicken’s Hockey Fights

Posted in Articles | Tagged BJ Crombeen, Brad Winchester, Cam Janssen, Columbus Blue Jackets, Jared Boll, Ken Hitchcock, Mike Commodore, New York Rangers, Rick Nash, St. Louis Blues | Leave a response